Return2PLAi

The record

How we have actually done

Every call we publish is scored against what happened, and the result is shown here whether it flatters us or not — scored on the same rule every week, so the number moves only when the work does.

Every week of the season

One row per player per week — his current call, which is the one we published. Not one row per call: a player re-called five times is still one player.

This is our own model only. Excluded: 13 restated, 245 from a previous model, 65 restated. Repeating a team's announcement scores near 100% and is not a forecast; a model we have retired is not this one. Both are kept in the record and neither is counted here.

WeekPlayersAccuracyWhen confidentBrierState
Week 10we were not live. We hold the outcome for 182 players that week, and no call — a week that did not happen is not a week we got wrongnot live
Week 20we were not live. We hold the outcome for 251 players that week, and no call — a week that did not happen is not a week we got wrongnot live
Week 30no calls of our own were scored this week — 245 from a model we have retired and 13 restating a team's own announcement. Kept in the record, not counted as oursnone of ours
Week 423283.6%100.0%0.1278scored

By game day

A Thursday-night call has two days of lead on it and a Monday-night call has six. They are not the same product, so they are not averaged together here. Our own calls only — excluded: 78 restating a team's own announcement and 245 from a model we have retired. Kept in the record, not counted here.

Game dayPlayersAccuracyBrier
Sunday22284.7%0.1241
Thursday night1060.0%0.2106
297players settled
87.2%accuracy
100.0%accuracy when confident
0.0999brier score

Called by champion/sides v1: 10/9 families (off/def), regime per week, threshold per side; trained on 16,686 cases 2016-2026 <wk4.

By band

The band is the product, not the decimal. Only the two ends are the ones we stand behind — the middle three are published with their measured rates so you can see why.

BandCallsAccuracyBrier
COIN FLIP5657.1%0.2415
EXPECTED47100.0%0.0106
LIKELY11691.4%0.1122
NOT EXPECTED69100.0%0.0003
UNLIKELY955.6%0.2895

By call source

A call that reads the team's own announcement is not model skill, and it is counted separately so it cannot flatter the rest.

SourceCallsAccuracyBrier
after his team's announcement5865.5%0.1927
before his team said anything17489.7%0.1062
his team's own word, restated65100.0%0.0002

By model

The retired model's rows sit beside the champion's, graded the same way on the same cases. Every n is shown: a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.

ModelCallsAccuracyBrier
champion/sides v129787.2%0.0999

Every call in week 4, including the misses

PlayerTeamBandCallP(plays)What happenedResult
A'Shawn RobinsonTBEXPECTEDPLAY90.4%playedright
Aaron BanksGBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Aaron BrewerMIALIKELYPLAY75.3%playedright
Aaron DonaldLANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Aaron JonesMINCOIN FLIPPLAY61.8%playedright
Adonai MitchellNYJNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Aidan O'ConnellLVNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.0%did not playright
Akeem Davis-GaitherINDEXPECTEDPLAY90.6%playedright
Alaric JacksonLACOIN FLIPSIT37.3%playedwrong
Albert RegisJAXCOIN FLIPSIT44.1%playedwrong
Amik RobertsonWASLIKELYPLAY76.3%playedright
Andrew ThomasNYGLIKELYPLAY71.8%playedright
Anthony CampbellGBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsBUFCOIN FLIPSIT49.8%did not playright
Ashton DulinINDEXPECTEDPLAY86.9%playedright
Ashton GillotteKCLIKELYPLAY65.7%playedright
Ashton JeantyLVLIKELYPLAY79.7%playedright
Azeez Al-ShaairHOUNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
B.J. HillCINCOIN FLIPPLAY62.6%did not playwrong
Baker MayfieldTBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Ben BartchDETNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Ben SinnottWASCOIN FLIPPLAY54.3%playedright
Benjamin MorrisonTBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Blake CashmanMINLIKELYPLAY78.2%playedright
Bradley ChubbBUFEXPECTEDPLAY86.4%playedright
Brandin EcholsPITCOIN FLIPSIT42.5%playedwrong
Brandon PiliSEALIKELYPLAY80.2%did not playwrong
Braxton JonesCHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Breece HallNYJNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Brenden SchoolerNENOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Brenen ThompsonLACNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Brett ThorsonMINNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
British BrooksHOUNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.0%did not playright
Brock BowersLVCOIN FLIPPLAY64.9%playedright
Bryan CookCINLIKELYPLAY65.0%did not playwrong
Bryce YoungCARLIKELYPLAY71.1%playedright
Bucky IrvingTBEXPECTEDPLAY97.5%playedright
Bud DupreeLACLIKELYPLAY72.4%playedright
Budda BakerARIEXPECTEDPLAY92.0%playedright
Byron YoungPHILIKELYPLAY72.4%playedright
Byron YoungLACOIN FLIPSIT42.1%playedwrong
Calais CampbellBALLIKELYPLAY84.7%playedright
Caleb DouglasMIANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Caleb WilliamsCHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Calen BullockHOULIKELYPLAY67.7%playedright
Cam JacksonCARCOIN FLIPPLAY64.5%did not playwrong
Cam LewisCHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.0%did not playright
Chamarri ConnerKCLIKELYPLAY69.0%playedright
Channing CanadaNECOIN FLIPPLAY51.1%did not playwrong
Charles DemmingsMINNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Charles OmenihuWASLIKELYPLAY66.0%playedright
Charlie KolarLACNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Charvarius WardINDEXPECTEDPLAY90.0%playedright
Chazz SurrattSEACOIN FLIPPLAY56.7%did not playwrong
Chig OkonkwoWASLIKELYPLAY66.3%playedright
Chop RobinsonMIAEXPECTEDPLAY85.0%playedright
Chris BellMIALIKELYPLAY76.9%playedright
Chris Godwin Jr.TBEXPECTEDPLAY92.9%playedright
Chris JonesKCLIKELYPLAY76.8%playedright
Chris MooreBALLIKELYPLAY65.4%did not playwrong
Christian BarmoreNENOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Christian BenfordBUFCOIN FLIPSIT43.9%did not playright
Christian BraswellJAXCOIN FLIPPLAY54.1%did not playwrong
Christian DarrisawMINUNLIKELYSIT22.6%playedwrong
Christian EllissNELIKELYPLAY81.2%playedright
Christian GonzalezNENOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Christian McCaffreySFEXPECTEDPLAY86.0%playedright
Christian Roland-WallaceKCLIKELYPLAY68.2%playedright
Chuba HubbardCAREXPECTEDPLAY91.4%playedright
Cobie DurantDALNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Cody WhiteLVCOIN FLIPPLAY58.1%did not playwrong
Colbie YoungCINNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Colby ParkinsonLACOIN FLIPPLAY59.7%did not playwrong
Cole Van LanenJAXLIKELYPLAY76.2%playedright
Craig WoodsonNELIKELYPLAY65.4%playedright
D'Andre SwiftCHIEXPECTEDPLAY89.6%playedright
D.J. JonesDENLIKELYPLAY79.7%playedright
D.J. ReedDETCOIN FLIPPLAY63.9%playedright
D.J. WonnumDETEXPECTEDPLAY89.8%playedright
DJ MooreBUFLIKELYPLAY74.4%playedright
DJ Turner IICINCOIN FLIPPLAY62.1%playedright
DaVon HamiltonJAXEXPECTEDPLAY90.3%playedright
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonARINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Dallas GoedertPHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Dalton RisnerCINLIKELYPLAY72.8%playedright
Dalton SchultzHOUCOIN FLIPPLAY55.8%playedright
Dalvin TomlinsonLACNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Damar HamlinBUFCOIN FLIPPLAY57.6%playedright
Damien LewisCARNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Dante Trader Jr.MIALIKELYPLAY67.4%playedright
Darius CooperPHICOIN FLIPPLAY60.1%playedright
Darren WallerCARLIKELYPLAY79.3%playedright
Davante AdamsLALIKELYPLAY77.6%playedright
DeMarvion OvershownDALNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
DeMonte CapehartTBLIKELYPLAY82.2%did not playwrong
DeVonta SmithPHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Deone WalkerBUFLIKELYPLAY71.8%playedright
Deonte BanksNYGLIKELYPLAY67.5%playedright
Derwin JamesLACCOIN FLIPPLAY64.2%did not playwrong
Devin LloydCARLIKELYPLAY77.4%playedright
Dexter LawrenceCINCOIN FLIPSIT46.4%playedwrong
Dondrea TillmanDENNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Donte JacksonLACEXPECTEDPLAY96.6%playedright
Dorian WilliamsBUFLIKELYPLAY80.8%playedright
Drake MayeNECOIN FLIPPLAY61.9%playedright
Dre GreenlawSFLIKELYPLAY75.8%playedright
Dre'Mont JonesNEEXPECTEDPLAY90.1%playedright
Durham SmytheBALEXPECTEDPLAY85.3%playedright
Dylan ParhamNYJNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Ed IngramHOUCOIN FLIPSIT41.1%playedwrong
Edgerrin CooperGBEXPECTEDPLAY90.5%playedright
Elgton JenkinsCLEUNLIKELYSIT22.8%did not playright
Eli RaridonNECOIN FLIPPLAY58.3%playedright
Elijah CampbellNYGLIKELYPLAY67.5%playedright
Elijah MoldenLACCOIN FLIPPLAY64.1%playedright
Eric StokesLVLIKELYPLAY77.7%playedright
Ethan PocicBALNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Felix Anudike-UzomahKCLIKELYPLAY79.8%playedright
Foley FatukasiLVEXPECTEDPLAY91.9%playedright
Francisco MauigoaNYJNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Frankie LuvuWASLIKELYPLAY72.5%playedright
Fred JohnsonPHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
George HolaniSEACOIN FLIPSIT43.0%playedwrong
Grady JarrettCHILIKELYPLAY80.3%playedright
Grant DelpitCLELIKELYPLAY65.8%playedright
Grey ZabelSEACOIN FLIPPLAY64.6%playedright
Grover StewartINDEXPECTEDPLAY87.5%playedright
Harrison SmithMINCOIN FLIPPLAY58.8%playedright
Hjalte FroholdtARILIKELYPLAY81.8%playedright
Isaac SeumaloARILIKELYPLAY78.9%playedright
Isaiah Pola-MaoLVLIKELYPLAY77.8%playedright
J.K. DobbinsDENEXPECTEDPLAY89.0%playedright
Jack CochraneKCLIKELYPLAY65.5%playedright
Jackson Powers-JohnsonLVNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Jacob MonkGBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Jacob ParrishTBLIKELYPLAY65.7%playedright
Jadarian PriceSEANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Jaden DuggerSFLIKELYPLAY69.3%playedright
Jadeveon ClowneyHOUCOIN FLIPSIT36.6%playedwrong
Jadon CanadyKCCOIN FLIPPLAY56.7%did not playwrong
Jager BurtonGBCOIN FLIPSIT47.8%did not playright
Jake HansenHOULIKELYPLAY67.6%playedright
Jakobi MeyersJAXLIKELYPLAY73.0%playedright
Jalen CarterPHILIKELYPLAY75.4%playedright
Jalen CokerCARLIKELYPLAY76.0%did not playwrong
Jalen RamseyPITCOIN FLIPSIT48.9%playedwrong
James HoustonDALLIKELYPLAY75.1%did not playwrong
James Thompson Jr.SFNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Jarran ReedSEAEXPECTEDPLAY90.0%playedright
Jarrian JonesJAXLIKELYPLAY69.2%playedright
Javon KinlawWASEXPECTEDPLAY96.3%playedright
Jayden DanielsWASNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Jaylen WaddleDENEXPECTEDPLAY85.9%playedright
Jaylen WatsonLANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Jaylen WrightMIALIKELYPLAY81.0%playedright
Jeremy RuckertNYJEXPECTEDPLAY89.0%playedright
Jihaad CampbellPHICOIN FLIPPLAY53.8%playedright
Joe AndreessenBUFLIKELYPLAY69.5%playedright
Joe ThuneyCHILIKELYPLAY78.2%playedright
Joey Porter Jr.PITCOIN FLIPPLAY61.3%did not playwrong
John Franklin-MyersTENEXPECTEDPLAY95.5%playedright
John Michael SchmitzNYGCOIN FLIPSIT35.4%did not playright
John SimpsonBALLIKELYPLAY78.5%playedright
Jonah JacksonCHILIKELYPLAY76.7%playedright
Jonathan AllenCINLIKELYPLAY83.7%playedright
Jonathan GreenardPHILIKELYPLAY82.0%playedright
Jonathan JonesPHILIKELYPLAY66.4%playedright
Jonathan TaylorINDEXPECTEDPLAY89.8%playedright
Jordan BattleCINLIKELYPLAY75.8%playedright
Jordan DavisPHICOIN FLIPPLAY63.1%playedright
Josaiah StewartLACOIN FLIPSIT44.3%playedwrong
Josh SimmonsKCNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Josh SweatARILIKELYPLAY71.5%playedright
Josh WallaceLALIKELYPLAY81.2%playedright
Joshua UcheMIAEXPECTEDPLAY87.4%playedright
Josiah TrotterTBEXPECTEDPLAY90.6%playedright
Jovaughn GwynBALNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Julian LoveSEALIKELYPLAY76.7%playedright
Julius BrentsMIALIKELYPLAY71.3%playedright
Justin EboigbeLACEXPECTEDPLAY85.2%playedright
Justin JeffersonMINNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Kamren KinchensLALIKELYPLAY78.8%playedright
Karl BrooksGBEXPECTEDPLAY89.2%playedright
Kayode AwosikaLACNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Keaton MitchellLACEXPECTEDPLAY88.9%playedright
Keenan AllenINDCOIN FLIPPLAY56.5%did not playwrong
Keion WhiteSFLIKELYPLAY77.5%playedright
Keionte ScottTBLIKELYPLAY81.5%playedright
Kene NwangwuNYJLIKELYPLAY83.0%playedright
Kenyon SadiqNYJEXPECTEDPLAY96.1%playedright
Keon ColemanBUFCOIN FLIPPLAY58.4%playedright
Kevin Winston Jr.TENUNLIKELYSIT32.3%playedwrong
KhaDarel HodgeSFUNLIKELYSIT29.0%did not playright
Khalil MackLACLIKELYPLAY77.5%playedright
Kingsley EnagbareNYJLIKELYPLAY82.9%did not playwrong
Ko KieftTBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Kyle DuggerCINNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Kyler GordonCHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
L'Jarius SneedKCLIKELYPLAY73.2%playedright
Ladd McConkeyLACLIKELYPLAY75.0%playedright
Lamar JacksonBALLIKELYPLAY69.3%playedright
LeQuint Allen Jr.JAXCOIN FLIPPLAY61.6%playedright
Lee HunterCARLIKELYPLAY81.1%playedright
Leonard WilliamsSEALIKELYPLAY77.8%playedright
Logan HallHOUCOIN FLIPPLAY57.3%playedright
Lucas PatrickWASLIKELYPLAY68.1%playedright
Lukas Van NessGBLIKELYPLAY74.1%playedright
M.J. StewartHOUNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Mack WilsonARIEXPECTEDPLAY99.0%playedright
Malik BensonLVCOIN FLIPPLAY63.0%playedright
Malik HookerDALEXPECTEDPLAY89.3%playedright
Marcus EppsPHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Mark AndrewsBALEXPECTEDPLAY86.7%playedright
Marlon HumphreyBALLIKELYPLAY81.2%playedright
Marquise BrownPHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Marvin Mims Jr.DENLIKELYPLAY69.7%playedright
Mason TaylorNYJNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Mike EvansSFLIKELYPLAY83.2%playedright
Minkah FitzpatrickNYJEXPECTEDPLAY91.5%playedright
Mo Alie-CoxINDLIKELYPLAY84.8%playedright
Monroe FreelingCARLIKELYPLAY80.9%playedright
Montaric BrownJAXCOIN FLIPPLAY55.2%did not playwrong
Morgan MosesNELIKELYPLAY72.8%playedright
Moro OjomoPHILIKELYPLAY68.0%playedright
Mykel WilliamsSFNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Nate BoerkircherJAXLIKELYPLAY68.3%playedright
Nate LandmanLAEXPECTEDPLAY92.9%playedright
Nic JonesNYGLIKELYPLAY71.6%playedright
Nick AllegrettiWASLIKELYPLAY76.1%playedright
Nick BosaSFNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Nick CrossWASNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Nick EmmanworiSEACOIN FLIPPLAY60.5%playedright
Nick ScottCAREXPECTEDPLAY87.3%playedright
Nico CollinsHOULIKELYPLAY66.0%playedright
Noah SewellCHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Patrick MahomesKCCOIN FLIPPLAY61.1%playedright
Patrick RicardNYGEXPECTEDPLAY89.3%playedright
Percy ButlerWASEXPECTEDPLAY91.3%playedright
Poona FordLAEXPECTEDPLAY86.8%playedright
Princely UmanmielenCARLIKELYPLAY66.9%playedright
Puka NacuaLAEXPECTEDPLAY88.5%playedright
Quan MartinWASLIKELYPLAY71.9%playedright
Rachaad WhiteWASNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Rakeem Nunez-RochesTBLIKELYPLAY68.1%playedright
Rashee RiceKCLIKELYPLAY77.9%playedright
Rashid ShaheedSEALIKELYPLAY77.8%playedright
Ray DavisBUFCOIN FLIPPLAY52.5%playedright
Reggie GilliamNELIKELYPLAY78.2%playedright
Rico DowdlePITUNLIKELYSIT32.9%did not playright
Rob Beal Jr.MIANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Romello HeightSFLIKELYPLAY68.3%playedright
Ronnie StanleyBALCOIN FLIPPLAY60.1%playedright
Roy LopezARIEXPECTEDPLAY99.0%playedright
Rueben Bain Jr.TBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Sam CosmiWASNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Sam Franklin Jr.BUFUNLIKELYSIT20.1%playedwrong
Seydou TraoreMIALIKELYPLAY66.8%playedright
Shavon Revel Jr.DALCOIN FLIPPLAY58.3%playedright
Shemar TurnerCHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
SirVocea DennisTBLIKELYPLAY74.6%playedright
Spencer ShraderINDEXPECTEDPLAY92.4%playedright
Storm DuckMIANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Swayze BozemanCINCOIN FLIPSIT44.3%did not playright
T.J. SandersBUFNOT EXPECTEDSIT9.9%did not playright
Tank BigsbyPHICOIN FLIPPLAY63.3%playedright
Terrance FergusonLANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Terrel BernardBUFUNLIKELYSIT27.5%playedwrong
Terry McLaurinWASLIKELYPLAY73.3%did not playwrong
Teven JenkinsCLELIKELYPLAY78.8%did not playwrong
Tony PollardTENLIKELYPLAY84.7%playedright
Trent BrownHOULIKELYPLAY65.2%playedright
Trent WilliamsSFLIKELYPLAY79.0%playedright
Trey HendricksonBALNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Trey LanceLACUNLIKELYSIT30.9%did not playright
Treydan StukesLVEXPECTEDPLAY85.4%playedright
Tristin McCollumLVCOIN FLIPPLAY63.5%did not playwrong
Tucker AddingtonMIALIKELYPLAY67.1%playedright
Ty OkadaSEALIKELYPLAY71.4%did not playwrong
Tyjae SpearsTENLIKELYPLAY80.3%playedright
Tylan WallaceCLEUNLIKELYSIT21.0%did not playright
Tyler HigbeeLACOIN FLIPSIT40.2%playedwrong
Tyler NubinNYGLIKELYPLAY76.0%playedright
Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYGLIKELYPLAY78.6%playedright
Tyson CampbellCLELIKELYPLAY68.7%playedright
Tytus HowardCLELIKELYPLAY68.8%playedright
Wade WoodazHOUCOIN FLIPPLAY59.0%playedright
Walter NolenARIEXPECTEDPLAY94.7%playedright
Warren BrinsonGBNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Will Anderson Jr.HOULIKELYPLAY74.8%playedright
Will ShipleyPHICOIN FLIPPLAY58.5%playedright
Xavier LegetteCARNOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Yaya DiabyTBLIKELYPLAY83.3%playedright
Zach AllenDENLIKELYPLAY79.7%playedright
Zach CharbonnetSEANOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Zack BaunPHINOT EXPECTEDSIT1.3%did not playright
Zay FlowersBALLIKELYPLAY65.9%playedright
Zeek BiggersMIALIKELYPLAY66.2%playedright