The record

How we have actually done

Every call we publish is scored against what happened, and the result is shown here whether it flatters us or not — scored on the same rule every week, so the number moves only when the work does.

Every week of the season

One row per player per week — his current call, which is the one we published. Not one row per call: a player re-called five times is still one player.

This is our own model only. Excluded: 13 restated, 245 from a previous model, 65 restated. Repeating a team's announcement scores near 100% and is not a forecast; a model we have retired is not this one. Both are kept in the record and neither is counted here.

Week	Players	Accuracy	When confident	Brier	State
Week 1	0	we were not live. We hold the outcome for 182 players that week, and no call — a week that did not happen is not a week we got wrong			not live
Week 2	0	we were not live. We hold the outcome for 251 players that week, and no call — a week that did not happen is not a week we got wrong			not live
Week 3	0	no calls of our own were scored this week — 245 from a model we have retired and 13 restating a team's own announcement. Kept in the record, not counted as ours			none of ours
Week 4	232	83.6%	100.0%	0.1278	scored

By game day

A Thursday-night call has two days of lead on it and a Monday-night call has six. They are not the same product, so they are not averaged together here. Our own calls only — excluded: 78 restating a team's own announcement and 245 from a model we have retired. Kept in the record, not counted here.

Game day	Players	Accuracy	Brier
Sunday	222	84.7%	0.1241
Thursday night	10	60.0%	0.2106

258players settled

72.1%accuracy

75.4%accuracy when confident

0.2204brier score

Called by earliness/offset v1 (trained on 4497 cases, 2023-2025).

36 of these 232 confident calls would not be confident today

This week was called by a model we have since retired, and its rule let a call in the middle of the range count as one we stand behind. Today only the two ends of the band table qualify. The flag is left exactly as it was written — it is the record of what we claimed at the time, and rewriting it would destroy the thing it exists to prove. The number is shown instead.

By band

The band is the product, not the decimal. Only the two ends are the ones we stand behind — the middle three are published with their measured rates so you can see why.

Band	Calls	Accuracy	Brier
COIN FLIP	13	38.5%	0.2816
EXPECTED	183	73.2%	0.2356
LIKELY	49	69.4%	0.2059
NOT EXPECTED	13	100.0%	0.0002

By call source

A call that reads the team's own announcement is not model skill, and it is counted separately so it cannot flatter the rest.

Source	Calls	Accuracy	Brier
his team's own word, restated	13	100.0%	0.0002
a previous model of ours, since retired	245	70.6%	0.2321

By model

The retired model's rows sit beside the champion's, graded the same way on the same cases. Every n is shown: a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.

Model	Calls	Accuracy	Brier
earliness/offset v1 (trained on 4497 cases, 2023-2025)	258	72.1%	0.2204

Every call in week 3, including the misses

Player	Team	Band	Call	P(plays)	What happened	Result
A.J. Terrell	ATL	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.3%	did not play	wrong
Aaron Banks	GB	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Aaron Jones	MIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.6%	played	right
Ahmed Hassanein	DET	LIKELY	PLAY	65.4%	did not play	wrong
Aidan O'Connell	LV	COIN FLIP	PLAY	59.2%	did not play	wrong
Alaric Jackson	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.0%	played	right
Alec Pierce	IND	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.6%	did not play	wrong
Alim McNeill	DET	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.1%	played	right
Andrei Iosivas	CIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.8%	did not play	wrong
Andrew Thomas	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.5%	played	right
Anthony Belton	GB	LIKELY	PLAY	81.6%	played	right
Anthony Campbell	GB	LIKELY	PLAY	66.0%	did not play	wrong
Anthony Nelson	TB	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.6%	played	right
Ar'maj Reed-Adams	BUF	LIKELY	PLAY	77.4%	did not play	wrong
Ashton Dulin	IND	EXPECTED	PLAY	85.1%	did not play	wrong
B.J. Hill	CIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.5%	did not play	wrong
Baker Mayfield	TB	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.8%	played	right
Barion Brown	NO	COIN FLIP	PLAY	54.7%	did not play	wrong
Ben Bartch	DET	LIKELY	PLAY	73.7%	did not play	wrong
Benjamin St-Juste	GB	EXPECTED	PLAY	86.9%	played	right
Billy Bowman Jr.	ATL	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.5%	played	right
Bo Melton	GB	LIKELY	PLAY	80.4%	played	right
Bobby Brown III	CAR	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.9%	played	right
Bradley Chubb	BUF	EXPECTED	PLAY	98.4%	played	right
Brady Russell	SEA	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.4%	played	right
Brandon Cisse	GB	LIKELY	PLAY	84.4%	played	right
Brandon Coleman	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.3%	played	right
Brandon Dorlus	ATL	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.6%	played	right
Brandon Pili	SEA	LIKELY	PLAY	70.1%	did not play	wrong
Brenden Schooler	NE	LIKELY	PLAY	75.3%	did not play	wrong
Brenen Thompson	LAC	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Brett Thorson	MIN	LIKELY	PLAY	81.0%	did not play	wrong
Brian Burns	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.6%	played	right
Brian O'Neill	MIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.2%	played	right
Brian Robinson	ATL	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.1%	played	right
Brock Bowers	LV	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.6%	played	right
Calais Campbell	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.5%	played	right
Caleb Douglas	MIA	LIKELY	PLAY	82.9%	did not play	wrong
Carlton Davis III	NE	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.7%	played	right
Chamarri Conner	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.7%	did not play	wrong
Charles Omenihu	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	86.4%	played	right
Charlie Kolar	LAC	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Charvarius Ward	IND	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.5%	played	right
Chase Young	NO	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.2%	played	right
Chig Okonkwo	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.1%	did not play	wrong
Chop Robinson	MIA	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.0%	played	right
Chris Bell	MIA	COIN FLIP	PLAY	61.7%	played	right
Chris Johnson	MIA	LIKELY	PLAY	83.7%	played	right
Chris Jones	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.8%	played	right
Chris Moore	BAL	LIKELY	PLAY	68.5%	played	right
Christen Miller	NO	LIKELY	PLAY	73.4%	did not play	wrong
Christian Braswell	JAX	LIKELY	PLAY	83.4%	played	right
Christian Mahogany	DET	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.4%	played	right
Christian McCaffrey	SF	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.8%	played	right
Claudin Cherelus	CAR	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.3%	did not play	wrong
Cobie Durant	DAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.3%	did not play	wrong
Colby Parkinson	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	88.8%	played	right
Cole Holcomb	PIT	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.1%	played	right
Cole Strange	LAC	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.9%	played	right
Cole Van Lanen	JAX	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.4%	played	right
Cooper Kupp	SEA	EXPECTED	PLAY	86.4%	played	right
Cordale Flott	TEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.8%	played	right
Craig Woodson	NE	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.8%	did not play	wrong
DJ Moore	BUF	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.6%	played	right
DaQuan Jones	NE	LIKELY	PLAY	84.1%	played	right
DaVon Hamilton	JAX	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.8%	played	right
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	88.3%	did not play	wrong
Dalton Schultz	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.9%	played	right
Dalvin Tomlinson	LAC	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Dametrious Crownover	NE	COIN FLIP	PLAY	54.2%	did not play	wrong
Dareke Young	LV	LIKELY	PLAY	75.0%	played	right
Darien Porter	LV	EXPECTED	PLAY	88.1%	played	right
Darren Waller	CAR	LIKELY	PLAY	77.0%	played	right
David Bailey	NYJ	LIKELY	PLAY	79.3%	played	right
DeMarvion Overshown	DAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.2%	did not play	wrong
Deane Leonard	LAC	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.9%	played	right
DeeJay Dallas	MIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	87.2%	played	right
Demarcus Robinson	SF	LIKELY	PLAY	81.2%	did not play	wrong
Deonte Banks	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.5%	did not play	wrong
Derwin James	LAC	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.7%	played	right
Devin Lloyd	CAR	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.1%	did not play	wrong
Donovan Jennings	GB	LIKELY	PLAY	73.5%	played	right
Dorance Armstrong	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.9%	played	right
Dre Greenlaw	SF	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.5%	played	right
Dre'Mont Jones	NE	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.5%	did not play	wrong
Drew Stevens	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	85.1%	played	right
Ed Ingram	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.0%	did not play	wrong
Ed Oliver	BUF	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.6%	played	right
Edgerrin Cooper	GB	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.5%	played	right
Eli Raridon	NE	LIKELY	PLAY	79.3%	did not play	wrong
Elijah Molden	LAC	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Ernest Jones	SEA	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.9%	played	right
Felix Anudike-Uzomah	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	87.9%	played	right
Fernando Carmona	TEN	LIKELY	PLAY	81.7%	played	right
Foley Fatukasi	LV	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.0%	played	right
Francis Mauigoa	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.7%	played	right
Francisco Mauigoa	NYJ	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.7%	did not play	wrong
Frankie Luvu	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.1%	did not play	wrong
Garrett Williams	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.5%	played	right
George Holani	SEA	LIKELY	PLAY	68.7%	played	right
Grant Delpit	CLE	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.2%	played	right
Greg Newsome II	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.0%	played	right
Hjalte Froholdt	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.2%	played	right
Hogan Hatten	DET	EXPECTED	PLAY	86.7%	played	right
Isaac Seumalo	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.3%	played	right
Isaiah Stalbird	NO	LIKELY	PLAY	81.5%	played	right
J.K. Dobbins	DEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.4%	played	right
JJ Pegues	LV	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.2%	did not play	wrong
Jack Cochrane	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.3%	played	right
Jacob Hummel	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.0%	did not play	wrong
Jacob Parrish	TB	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.5%	played	right
Jacoby Brissett	ARI	LIKELY	PLAY	81.0%	played	right
Jadarian Price	SEA	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.0%	played	right
Jaden Hicks	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.4%	played	right
Jadeveon Clowney	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.7%	did not play	wrong
Jadon Canady	KC	LIKELY	PLAY	78.0%	played	right
Jaelan Phillips	CAR	EXPECTED	PLAY	98.3%	played	right
Jake Golday	MIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	86.5%	played	right
Jakobi Meyers	JAX	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.2%	played	right
Jalen Coker	CAR	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.0%	played	right
Jalen McMillan	TB	LIKELY	PLAY	68.7%	played	right
Jalen Ramsey	PIT	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.3%	played	right
Jalen Redmond	MIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.1%	played	right
Jamel Dean	PIT	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.6%	played	right
James Houston	DAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	88.7%	played	right
James Williams	TEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.9%	played	right
Javon Hargrave	GB	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.1%	played	right
Javon Kinlaw	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.8%	played	right
Jawaan Taylor	ATL	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.5%	played	right
Jaxson Dart	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.0%	did not play	wrong
Jayden Daniels	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	88.4%	did not play	wrong
Jayden Reed	GB	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Jaylen Warren	PIT	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.8%	played	right
Jaylen Wright	MIA	COIN FLIP	PLAY	63.7%	did not play	wrong
Jaylin Lane	WAS	LIKELY	PLAY	81.3%	played	right
Jeffrey Bassa	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.5%	played	right
Jeremy Reaves	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.3%	played	right
Jermaine Eluemunor	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.7%	played	right
Joe Andreessen	BUF	LIKELY	PLAY	83.7%	played	right
Joey Porter Jr.	PIT	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.9%	did not play	wrong
John Simpson	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.2%	played	right
Jonah Coleman	DEN	LIKELY	PLAY	72.2%	did not play	wrong
Jonas Sanker	NO	LIKELY	PLAY	83.3%	played	right
Jonathan Allen	CIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.1%	played	right
Jonathan Taylor	IND	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.2%	played	right
Jordan Hancock	BUF	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Jordan Whittington	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.5%	played	right
Joseph Ossai	NYJ	LIKELY	PLAY	80.1%	played	right
Josh Simmons	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.5%	did not play	wrong
Josh Sweat	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.5%	played	right
Josiah Trotter	TB	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.2%	did not play	wrong
Julius Brents	MIA	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.8%	played	right
Kamren Kinchens	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.0%	did not play	wrong
Kayode Awosika	LAC	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Kaytron Allen	WAS	COIN FLIP	PLAY	52.2%	played	right
Keenan Allen	IND	LIKELY	PLAY	80.4%	played	right
Kene Nwangwu	NYJ	LIKELY	PLAY	78.2%	did not play	wrong
Keon Coleman	BUF	LIKELY	PLAY	84.4%	played	right
Khalil Mack	LAC	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.3%	played	right
L'Jarius Sneed	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.5%	played	right
LaCale London	ATL	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.4%	played	right
Ladd McConkey	LAC	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.1%	played	right
Laquon Treadwell	IND	LIKELY	PLAY	76.8%	played	right
LeQuint Allen Jr.	JAX	COIN FLIP	PLAY	52.9%	played	right
Leo Chenal	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.1%	played	right
Logan Hall	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.7%	played	right
M.J. Stewart	HOU	COIN FLIP	PLAY	62.6%	did not play	wrong
Mack Wilson	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.8%	played	right
Malaki Starks	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.7%	played	right
Malik Hooker	DAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.7%	did not play	wrong
Malik Nabers	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.8%	played	right
Mansoor Delane	KC	COIN FLIP	PLAY	64.7%	played	right
Martin Emerson	NO	LIKELY	PLAY	77.9%	did not play	wrong
Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.0%	did not play	wrong
Mason Graham	CLE	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.8%	played	right
Mason Taylor	NYJ	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.6%	did not play	wrong
Matt Goncalves	IND	EXPECTED	PLAY	87.0%	played	right
Max Melton	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.7%	played	right
Micah McFadden	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.2%	played	right
Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	LIKELY	PLAY	71.7%	played	right
Michael Pittman	PIT	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.7%	played	right
Mike Evans	SF	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.7%	played	right
Minkah Fitzpatrick	NYJ	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.6%	did not play	wrong
Morgan Moses	NE	EXPECTED	PLAY	85.3%	played	right
Nakobe Dean	LV	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.3%	played	right
Nate Landman	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.0%	played	right
Nathan Shepherd	NO	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.1%	played	right
Nic Jones	NYG	LIKELY	PLAY	84.9%	played	right
Nick Bosa	SF	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.4%	did not play	wrong
Nick Cross	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.3%	did not play	wrong
Nick Emmanwori	SEA	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.5%	played	right
Nick Muse	ATL	LIKELY	PLAY	72.3%	played	right
Nick Samac	MIN	COIN FLIP	PLAY	59.4%	did not play	wrong
Nick Scott	CAR	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.4%	did not play	wrong
Nico Collins	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.3%	did not play	wrong
Nnamdi Madubuike	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.3%	played	right
P.J. Locke	DAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.9%	did not play	wrong
Patrick Jones II	CAR	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.9%	played	right
Patrick Mahomes	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.1%	played	right
Percy Butler	WAS	LIKELY	PLAY	82.1%	played	right
Puka Nacua	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.9%	did not play	wrong
Quentin Lake	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.4%	played	right
Quincy Williams	CLE	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.6%	played	right
Quintayvious Hutchins	NE	LIKELY	PLAY	73.6%	did not play	wrong
RJ Harvey	DEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.6%	played	right
Rashawn Slater	LAC	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.8%	played	right
Rashee Rice	KC	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.1%	played	right
Reed Blankenship	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	96.2%	played	right
Reggie Gilliam	NE	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.6%	played	right
Rico Dowdle	PIT	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.2%	did not play	wrong
Rob Beal Jr.	MIA	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.8%	did not play	wrong
Robert Hainsey	JAX	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.6%	played	right
Rodney Shelley	LAC	LIKELY	PLAY	77.7%	played	right
Romello Height	SF	EXPECTED	PLAY	88.8%	did not play	wrong
Ronnie Stanley	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.2%	did not play	wrong
Roy Lopez	ARI	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.2%	played	right
Rueben Bain Jr.	TB	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.5%	did not play	wrong
Ryan Miller	MIA	COIN FLIP	PLAY	59.0%	played	right
Sam Cosmi	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.3%	did not play	wrong
Sam Darnold	SEA	LIKELY	PLAY	77.1%	played	right
Samson Ebukam	ATL	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Sauce Gardner	IND	EXPECTED	PLAY	92.9%	played	right
Segun Olubi	LV	LIKELY	PLAY	82.2%	played	right
Seydou Traore	MIA	LIKELY	PLAY	80.6%	played	right
Shelby Harris	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.6%	played	right
Solomon Thomas	TEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.7%	played	right
T.J. Sanders	BUF	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Tate Ratledge	DET	EXPECTED	PLAY	89.9%	played	right
Teddye Buchanan	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.0%	played	right
Terrance Ferguson	LA	EXPECTED	PLAY	86.8%	played	right
Terrel Bernard	BUF	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.0%	played	right
Teven Jenkins	CLE	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.4%	did not play	wrong
Thomas Harper	DET	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.8%	did not play	wrong
Tony Pollard	TEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.2%	played	right
Travis Etienne	NO	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.1%	played	right
Trent Brown	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	86.6%	played	right
Trent Williams	SF	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.1%	played	right
Trey Hendrickson	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.7%	played	right
Trey Lance	LAC	COIN FLIP	PLAY	61.6%	did not play	wrong
Trey Pipkins	LAC	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Treydan Stukes	LV	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.5%	did not play	wrong
Tua Tagovailoa	ATL	COIN FLIP	PLAY	54.9%	did not play	wrong
Tucker Addington	MIA	LIKELY	PLAY	76.8%	played	right
Tuli Tuipulotu	LAC	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.0%	played	right
Ty Johnson	BUF	LIKELY	PLAY	80.5%	played	right
Ty Okada	SEA	EXPECTED	PLAY	85.2%	did not play	wrong
Tyjae Spears	TEN	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.5%	played	right
Tyler Nubin	NYG	EXPECTED	PLAY	97.4%	did not play	wrong
Tyler Owens	WAS	EXPECTED	PLAY	87.2%	played	right
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins	MIN	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.4%	played	right
Tyson Campbell	CLE	EXPECTED	PLAY	94.0%	did not play	wrong
Tytus Howard	CLE	EXPECTED	PLAY	91.0%	played	right
Wade Woodaz	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	90.0%	played	right
Warren Brinson	GB	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Will Anderson Jr.	HOU	EXPECTED	PLAY	95.3%	played	right
Zach Bako-Bewele	GB	NOT EXPECTED	SIT	1.3%	did not play	right
Zay Flowers	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	93.4%	played	right
Zion Young	BAL	EXPECTED	PLAY	88.6%	played	right