The record
How we have actually done
Every call we publish is scored against what happened, and the result is shown here whether it flatters us or not. A results page that can only display good news is marketing.
Nothing has settled yet
Week 3 has not been played, so there is no scored result to show. This page will fill in after the whistle. It is deliberately blank rather than zero — a nought here would claim we got everything wrong, and a hundred would claim a perfect record from an empty set. Neither has been measured.
What will appear here
Accuracy on every call and on the confident subset separately, the Brier score, and each individual call with what actually happened — including the ones we got wrong. Accuracy alone is not enough: it depends on where the threshold sits and rewards a confident guess on a lopsided base rate, which is exactly the shape of this problem.