The record · public sample
Every call we publish is scored against what happened, including the misses. The call scored for each player is the final call we made on the player before his kickoff. The rule changed on 2026-11-01. Under the first call we made, the season's record read 70.2% over 2376 graded player-weeks. Only weeks that have been scored are shown here.
Head start is the hours between our first call on a player and his club's own word on him. It is counted only for players the club spoke on.
Each of our five bands, tested against what happened, over 2376 calls of ours in settled weeks. A band is a range of the chance we gave that he plays. This checks the chances themselves, not whether a play or sit call was right.
Each band: its calls, how many played, the rate we published it at, and the rate it showed
| Band | Calls | Played | Published at | Showed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOT EXPECTEDwe do not expect him to play | 68 | 1 | 2%range 1–2% | 1.5%95% range 0.3%–7.9% · not enough calls to judge |
| UNLIKELYunlikely to play | 102wider book 2 · designated-player book 100 | 15wider book 0 · designated-player book 15 | not measured in this bookwider book · designated-player book 22%, range 19–25% | 0.0%wider book, 95% range 0.0%–65.8% · not enough calls to judge · designated-player book 15.0%, 95% range 9.3%–23.3% · all books together 14.7% |
| COIN FLIPa genuine coin flip | 471wider book 103 · designated-player book 368 | 205wider book 4 · designated-player book 201 | 34%wider book, range 31–38% · designated-player book 53%, range 52–55% | 3.9%wider book, 95% range 1.5%–9.6% · designated-player book 54.6%, 95% range 49.5%–59.6% · all books together 43.5% |
| LIKELYlikely to play | 687wider book 215 · designated-player book 472 | 452wider book 66 · designated-player book 386 | 76%wider book, range 75–78% · designated-player book 75%, range 74–76% | 30.7%wider book, 95% range 24.9%–37.2% · designated-player book 81.8%, 95% range 78.0%–85.0% · all books together 65.8% |
| EXPECTEDwe expect him to play | 1048wider book 714 · designated-player book 334 | 946wider book 678 · designated-player book 268 | 96%wider book, range 96–97% · designated-player book 87%, range 85–88% | 95.0%wider book, 95% range 93.1%–96.3% · designated-player book 80.2%, 95% range 75.6%–84.2% · all books together 90.3% |
Share who played (dot) and its 95% range (bar), 0–100% · the wider book, where a band holds its calls
1 played of 68 · published at 2% · not enough calls to judge
0 played of 2 · not measured in this book · not enough calls to judge
4 played of 103 · published at 34%
66 played of 215 · published at 76%
678 played of 714 · published at 96%
The same for the designated-player book, against its own published rate
15 played of 100 · published at 22%
201 played of 368 · published at 53%
386 played of 472 · published at 75%
268 played of 334 · published at 87%
Brier score 0.1596 = miscalibration 0.0121 − discrimination 0.0696 + uncertainty 0.2171, over 2376 graded calls. Lower is better for the Brier score and for miscalibration; higher is better for discrimination.
The three parts of the Brier score
| Part | Value | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Uncertaintyhow hard the question is, whatever the forecaster | 0.2171 | |
| Miscalibrationhow far our numbers are from what happened (0 is a number that means what it says) | 0.0121 | |
| Discriminationhow well our numbers separate who plays from who does not | 0.0696 | 90% range 0.0614 to 0.0793 |
| Skillour Brier score against always saying the share who played (below 0 is worse than that) | 0.2649 | 90% range 0.2299 to 0.2972 |
Settled weeks only. The full analytics, week by week and call by call, are for signed-in accounts.