Kaelon Black

How our call moved this week

• our call, P(plays)

77% LIKELY → 77% LIKELY

Every call we wrote for him this week, earliest first, as written.

In short

Kaelon Black is in the rotation at running back for SF — 43% of the snaps in his best week of 6. He has a not injury related - personal matter injury. His snaps dropped last week. Of players in that position who did play the following week, 43% took under 70% of their usual snaps. His team has not listed him on the final report. We say he plays — 77%, in a band that plays 76% of the time. We have said PLAY since 42 hours before kickoff.

The reader concurs · grade D

The sole passage is a 17 Oct 49ers photo-gallery caption list in which "RB Kaelon Black" appears between other players' image credits (P1); it carries no statement about practice participation, injury designation, or game status for the 19 Oct game. The trailing gallery title "The Faithful Take Over Seattle" (P1) suggests event/gameday imagery rather than a club injury report, so it neither corroborates nor contradicts the dossier's DNP for a non-injury personal matter. With nothing written against the PLAY call, the model's number stands by default, but the written record is effectively silent. It would need to know: 49ers official practice participation report for each day Tue 13 Oct through Sun 18 Oct showing Black as DNP/LP/FP; Any final game-status designation (Out/Doubtful/Questionable/none) filed for Black ahead of the Mon 19 Oct game; A Kyle Shanahan or club statement on the duration/resolution of Black's non-injury personal matter and when he rejoined the team; Whether Christian McCaffrey, Jordan James or another 49ers RB is out for 19 Oct, which would raise Black's likelihood of being active; Whether Black travelled with the team / appeared on the Monday inactive list

What the read cites

How the call moved

LIKELY since Sun Oct 18 · 2:16 AM ET · 42 h before kickoff. Biggest move: 77% → 77%, Sun Oct 18 · 5:05 PM ET to Mon Oct 19 · 7:01 AM ET, with no club report in between.

This week's call

77% · LIKELY

likely to play — this band plays 76% of the time (75–78%), measured out of fold. We do not stand behind a call in this band, and say so rather than dress it up.

No dated practice report for him this week

The team has not published one we can date, or the window has not reached it. Not the same as his having practiced.

Head start

• Our call Sun Oct 18 · 2:16 AM ET
• Kickoff Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

• Rush yds / game28 range 13–65

  wk 1–6 · 6 games

• Carries / game7.5 range 4.0–14

  wk 1–6 · 6 games

• Rec yds / game1.3 range 0.0–5.0

  wk 1–6 · 6 games

• Snap share26.3% range 15–43

  wk 1–6 · 6 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

1. 43%wk 1
2. 33%wk 2
3. 15%wk 3
4. 26%wk 4
5. 18%wk 5
6. 23%wk 6

Our past calls vs what happened

Season on him: 2 of 2 graded calls of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report this week

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.