Cory Durden

How our call moved this week

• our call, P(plays)

85% EXPECTED → 95% EXPECTED

Every call we wrote for him this week, earliest first, as written.

In short

Cory Durden is a starter at nose tackle for NE — 62% of the snaps in his best week of 7. He has an illness injury. His snaps dropped last week. Of players in that position who did play the following week, 43% took under 70% of their usual snaps. This week he did not practise, then practised in full. His team has not listed him on the final report. We say he plays — 95%, in a band that plays 96% of the time. We have said PLAY since 54 hours before kickoff.

The reader concurs · grade C

The only written evidence remains the Patriots' second injury report of the week, which lists Durden as DNP Thursday with an illness and describes him as newly joining the sidelined group 'amid AFC East prep' (P1) — an illness that surfaced this week rather than a structural injury carrying over. P1 carries no game-status designation for Durden, so nothing written rules him out of the 18 Oct kickoff, and the two corners in the same list are explicitly framed as longer-running absences ('missed five consecutive practices') in contrast to his single missed day (P1). With one day's reading and no Friday report, the evidence supports the PLAY call but does not settle it, hence grade C. It would need to know: Friday 16 Oct and Saturday 17 Oct Patriots practice reports — did Durden move from DNP to LP/FP or stay DNP?; The official Friday game-status designation for Durden ahead of the 18 Oct Jets game (Out / Doubtful / Questionable / none); Any Mike Vrabel or team statement on whether Durden's illness has cleared, and whether he was at the facility/travelled; Whether the illness spread or Durden was sent home — clubs often hold contagious players out of the building; Patriots interior DL depth behind Durden (who starts if he is out) to judge how hard the club would push him for a division game

What the read cites

How the call moved

EXPECTED since Sat Oct 17 · 7:02 AM ET · 30 h before kickoff. Biggest move: 85% → 95%, Fri Oct 16 · 7:56 PM ET to Sat Oct 17 · 7:02 AM ET, after: practiced more (Did Not Participate In Practice → Full Participation in Practice).

This week's call

95% · EXPECTED

we expect him to play — this band plays 96% of the time (96–97%), measured out of fold. We stand behind this one.

Practice this week

Shape of the week: improving. Only days the publisher dated are shown; a day we could not date is left out until the nightly sweep stamps it. The shape is a fact, not a forecast.

Head start

• Our call Fri Oct 16 · 7:01 AM ET
• Kickoff Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

• Tackles / game2.5 range 1.0–4.0

  wk 1–7 · 6 games

• Sacks / game0.0 range 0.0–0.0

  wk 1–7 · 6 games

• Passes defended / game0.0 range 0.0–0.0

  wk 1–7 · 6 games

• Snap share50.1% range 27–62

  wk 1–7 · 7 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

1. 56%wk 1
2. 49%wk 2
3. 52%wk 3
4. 58%wk 4
5. 27%wk 5
6. 47%wk 6
7. 62%wk 7

Our past calls vs what happened

Season on him: 1 of 1 graded call of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report this week

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.