WR · Seattle Seahawks · week 6 vs Denver Broncos · Thu Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ET

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

TYPE Alpha receiver
ROLE a starter
CLASS 2023 · R1 P20
EXP 3 seasons
AGE under 25
DEPTH WR1

99%PLAY EXPECTED

As of week 6, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a WR for SEA, age 24.5, 3 seasons of experience, drafted in round 1. In 2026 through week 5 he was listed at depth rank 1 on his club's depth chart; he had played 5 games on 83% of snaps; his line was 116.6 receiving yards a game, 10 targets a game and a 35.2% target share (Alpha receiver by the published rule). Before 2026 he played 54 games (postseason included) over 3 seasons with 1 Pro Bowl and 1 first-team All-Pro. His injury history held 4 episodes (hip 1, illness 1, knee 1); the last was an illness injury in 2025 week 3.

The full read

How our call moved this week

100500

98%98%98%99%99%99%

Wed 7:01 AM ETThu 5:01 PM ET

our call, P(plays)

98% EXPECTED → 99% EXPECTED

Every call we wrote for him this week, earliest first, as written.

In short

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a starter at wide receiver for SEA — 92% of the snaps in his best week of 6. He has an ankle injury. This week he practised in full. His team has not listed him on the final report. We say he plays — 99%, in a band that plays 96% of the time. We have said PLAY since 37 hours before kickoff.

6versions this week

9average, every player

29most for one player

How the call moved

EXPECTED since Wed Oct 14 · 7:01 AM ET · 37 h before kickoff. Biggest move: 98% → 99%, Wed Oct 14 · 5:01 PM ET to Thu Oct 15 · 7:01 AM ET, after: practiced more (Limited Participation in Practice → Full Participation in Practice).

This week's call

NOT EXPECTEDUNLIKELYCOIN FLIPLIKELYEXPECTED

99% · EXPECTED

we expect him to play — this band plays 96% of the time (96–97%), measured out of fold. We stand behind this one.

Practice this week

Wed
FPdated Thu Oct 15

Shape of the week: single reading. Only days the publisher dated are shown; a day we could not date is left out until the nightly sweep stamps it. The shape is a fact, not a forecast.

Head start

Our call Wed Oct 14 · 7:01 AM ET
Kickoff Thu Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

Rec yds / game120 range 76–155
wk 1–6 · 6 games · above most of his peers
Targets / game11 range 6.0–16
wk 1–6 · 6 games · above most of his peers
Target share35.1% range 30–46
wk 1–6 · 6 games · above most of his peers
Snap share84.7% range 67–92
wk 1–6 · 6 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

90%wk 1
67%wk 2
87%wk 3
88%wk 4
84%wk 5
92%wk 6

Missed while on the injury report

Season	Weeks on the report	Missed while listed
2026	2	0

Only the weeks he was on the injury report with a recorded result — not every game of his career.

Medical history

When	Injury	Weeks on a report	Worst status
2026 · wk 6	ankle	1	—
2026 · wk 5	Not injury related	1	—
2025 · wk 11	Not injury related	9	—
2025 · wk 3	illness	1	Questionable
2023 · wk 17	knee	1	—
2023 · wk 10	hip	1	—
2023 · wk 1	wrist	1	—

Every injury episode on file for him, as the record holds it.

Injury history by season · 7 episodes · 15 weeks on a report · same site more than once: not injury related ×2

2023

knee · 1whip · 1wwrist · 1w

2025

Not injury related · 9willness · 1w

2026

ankle · 1wNot injury related · 1w

Weeks 1–18

questionable
listed, and played

Each bar is one episode: the week it began and how many weeks he was on a report, coloured by the worst status.

Our past calls vs what happened

Wk 5PLAY 99% ✓ rightbefore his team said anything; played

Wk 6PLAY 98% ✓ rightbefore his team said anything; played

Season on him: 2 of 2 graded calls of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report this week

Player	Pos	Practice	Whose word	Call	Chance he plays	Band
Leonard Williams	DT	LTD	ours	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED
Drew Lock	QB	LTD	ours	SIT	45%	COIN FLIP
Chazz Surratt	LB	DNP	team's word	Out
Irvin Charles	WR	FULL	ours	PLAY	92%	EXPECTED
Drake Thomas	LB	DNP	team's word	Out
Zach Charbonnet	RB	LTD	team's word	Out
George Holani	RB	FULL	ours	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED
Beau Stephens	G	FULL	ours	PLAY	79%	LIKELY

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.

The data behind this page — the timeline in words, every call and week on record, about him, and what this page does not show

Profile — as of week 6


Role	WR1 · 83% snaps
Season	2026 · 5 games through wk 5
Per game	116.6 receiving yards · 10 targets · 35.2% target share
Type	Alpha receiver
Career	3 seasons · 54 games before 2026
Honors	1× Pro Bowl · 1× first-team All-Pro
Injuries	4 episodes · last: illness, 2025 wk 3
Bio	age 24.5 · 3 seasons' experience · drafted round 1

Where the profile comes from

Built from: honors.db; nflverse injuries_2026.csv; medical.db; nflverse players.csv; profile.db; nflverse roster_2026.csv; nflverse roster_weekly_2026.csv; nflverse snap_counts_2026.csv; nflverse stats_player_week_2026.csv. Every number in it is one those sources hold.

nflverse injuries_2026.csv

About him

About him	As the record holds it
His role	a starter at wide receiver — 92% of the snaps in his best week of 6
Listed on the depth chart	first at wide receiver
Snaps played	85% a week on average over 6 weeks, 92% at his highest
Build	6 ft 0 in · 197 lb
College	Ohio State
Drafted	2023, round 1 pick 20, by SEA
Age	under 25 at the season's start
Experience	3 seasons

When this call was made, and when the world knew

Wed Oct 14 · 7:01 AM ETWrittenWe first said PLAY.
Thu Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ETPublicOur call became public, at kickoff.
Thu Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ETKickoffKickoff.

How our call moved, earliest first

When	Lead	Call	Chance he plays	Band	On what
Wed Oct 14 · 7:01 AM ET	37 h	PLAY	98%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Wed Oct 14 · 12:01 PM ET	32 h	PLAY	98%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Wed Oct 14 · 5:01 PM ET	27 h	PLAY	98%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Thu Oct 15 · 7:01 AM ET	13 h	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Thu Oct 15 · 12:01 PM ET	8 h	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Thu Oct 15 · 5:01 PM ET	3 h	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything

6 calls this week, and the call never flipped between PLAY and SIT. Each lead time is the one that call actually had when it was written — never recounted from now. A call that changes is the record working: new evidence arrived and we said so, in public, before the game.

We went and found out more

Rank 1 (listed first on his depth chart), 12 documents deep, because: llm_unsure. Fetched 12 of 12.

His record this season

Wk	Practice	Chance he plays	Call	Source	Played
5	FULL	99%	PLAY	before his team said anything	yes
6	LTD	98%	PLAY	before his team said anything	yes

A blank in Played is a week not yet settled — never a no.

What this page does not show

the reader's opinion — it has not read him this week.