Trenton Simpson

How our call moved this week

• our call, P(plays)

88% EXPECTED → 95% EXPECTED

Every call we wrote for him this week, earliest first, as written.

In short

Trenton Simpson is a starter at right inside linebacker for BAL — 62% of the snaps in his best week of 6. He has a hamstring injury. His team has not listed him on the final report. We say he plays — 95%, in a band that plays 96% of the time. We have said PLAY since 78 hours before kickoff.

The reader concurs · grade B

Every club-sourced line this week has Simpson practicing LIMITED rather than FULL — Wednesday (P4, "LB Trenton Simpson (hamstring) *" under Limited participation) and Thursday (P3, "linebacker Trenton Simpson (hamstring) ... all remained limited") — so the model's FULL input overstates his week, but limited participation on consecutive days with no DNP is still consistent with playing. The decisive Friday report has not been read: Baltimore Beatdown notes the "final Week 6 injury report will be posted on Friday afternoon, which will determine the final status for several of these players" (P2). Contextually he is a heavily-used starter in a career-best season (P1, "one of the Ravens' best defensive players"; P5, "seven tackles with a sack, tackle for loss and quarterback hit"), which supports the PLAY call even if the probability belongs somewhat below 0.95. It would need to know: Ravens' FINAL Friday (16 Oct) injury report: game-status designation for Trenton Simpson (Questionable/Doubtful/Out) for Sun 18 Oct vs. Cleveland; Friday 16 Oct practice participation line for Simpson — upgraded to full, still limited, or DNP; John Harbaugh press-conference remark on the severity/timeline of Simpson's hamstring; Saturday/Sunday inactives or beat-writer report on whether Simpson is expected to start vs. Cleveland; Status of Teddye Buchanan (groin) and Roquan Smith — whether an ILB shortage raises pressure to play Simpson

What the read cites

How the call moved

EXPECTED since Thu Oct 15 · 7:01 AM ET · 78 h before kickoff. Biggest move: 88% → 95%, Fri Oct 16 · 7:56 PM ET to Sat Oct 17 · 7:02 AM ET, after: practiced more (Limited Participation in Practice → Full Participation in Practice).

This week's call

95% · EXPECTED

we expect him to play — this band plays 96% of the time (96–97%), measured out of fold. We stand behind this one.

No dated practice report for him this week

The team has not published one we can date, or the window has not reached it. Not the same as his having practiced.

Head start

• Our call Thu Oct 15 · 7:01 AM ET
• Kickoff Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

• Tackles / game6.7 range 3.0–9.0

  wk 1–6 · 6 games · above most of his peers

• Sacks / game0.2 range 0.0–1.0

  wk 1–6 · 6 games

• Passes defended / game0.2 range 0.0–1.0

  wk 1–6 · 6 games

• Snap share59.0% range 56–62

  wk 1–6 · 6 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

1. 59%wk 1
2. 62%wk 2
3. 62%wk 3
4. 56%wk 4
5. 56%wk 5
6. 59%wk 6

Our past calls vs what happened

Season on him: 1 of 1 graded call of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report this week

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.