Andrew Ogletree

How our call moved in week 7

• our call, P(plays)

68% LIKELY → 99% EXPECTED

Every call we wrote for him in week 7, earliest first, as written.

In short

Andrew Ogletree is a starter at tight end for IND — 57% of the snaps in his best week of 7. He has an ankle injury. In week 7 he did not practise, then practised in full. His team has not listed him on the final report. We say he plays — 99%, in a band that plays 96% of the time. We have said PLAY since 92 hours before kickoff, and we changed our mind on the way.

The reader concurs · grade C

The only passage is the Wednesday club practice report, which puts Ogletree out of that session with a fresh ankle issue described in minimal terms — 'Tight ends Tyler Warren (groin) and Andrew Ogletree (ankle) both missed practice today... Ogletree appears to have picked up a knock to his ankle' (P1) — wording that connotes a knock rather than a structural injury. Nothing in P1 contradicts the dossier's improving shape (Wed DNP, Thu Full) or suggests a game-status designation is coming, so the PLAY call stands. The grade is C only because no passage covers the back half of the practice week or the official Friday/Saturday designation, which is the axis that actually decides availability. It would need to know: Colts practice participation report for Fri 23 Oct and Sat 24 Oct — Ogletree's DNP/LP/FP status; Official final game-status designation (Out/Doubtful/Questionable/none) for Ogletree for the 25 Oct game; Independent confirmation of the Thursday 22 Oct full participation listed in our dossier; Shane Steichen's remarks on the severity or timeline of Ogletree's ankle; Whether TE Tyler Warren (groin) is out, which would raise Ogletree's snap need

What the read cites

How the call moved

EXPECTED since Fri Oct 23 · 3:14 AM ET · 58 h before kickoff. Biggest move: 44% → 70%, Thu Oct 22 · 12:05 PM ET to Thu Oct 22 · 4:21 PM ET, with no club report in between.

Our call · week 7

99% · EXPECTED

we expect him to play — this band plays 96% of the time (96–97%), measured out of fold. We stand behind this one.

Practice in week 7

Shape of the week: improving. Only days the publisher dated are shown; a day we could not date is left out until the nightly sweep stamps it. The shape is a fact, not a forecast.

Head start

• Our call Wed Oct 21 · 4:50 PM ET
• Kickoff Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

• Rec yds / game3.2 range 0.0–12

  wk 1–7 · 5 games

• Targets / game1.0 range 0.0–2.0

  wk 1–7 · 5 games

• Target share3.3% range 0–10

  wk 1–7 · 5 games

• Snap share31.3% range 11–57

  wk 1–7 · 7 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

1. 11%wk 1
2. 29%wk 2
3. 30%wk 3
4. 29%wk 4
5. 27%wk 5
6. 36%wk 6
7. 57%wk 7

Our past calls vs what happened

Season on him: 1 of 1 graded call of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report in week 7

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.