WR · Las Vegas Raiders · week 6 vs Buffalo Bills · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

Jalen Nailor

TYPE Deep threat
ROLE a starter
CLASS 2022 · R6 P191
EXP 4 seasons
AGE 25-28
DEPTH WR2

97%PLAY EXPECTED

As of week 6, Jalen Nailor was a WR for LV, age 27.5, 4 seasons of experience, drafted in round 6. In 2026 through week 5 he was listed at depth rank 2 on his club's depth chart; he had played 4 games on 50% of snaps; his line was 17.3 receiving yards a game, 3.7 targets a game and a 12.5% target share (Deep threat by the published rule). Before 2026 he played 57 games (postseason included) over 4 seasons. His injury history held 8 episodes (hamstring 3, ankle 1, back 1), 1 of them reaching OUT, 2 a repeat of an earlier site; the last was a back injury in 2025 week 16.

The full read

How our call moved this week

100500

47%47%47%82%82%82%81%81%81%97%97%97%97%97%97%

Thu 7:01 AM ETSun 12:29 PM ET

our call, P(plays)

47% COIN FLIP → 97% EXPECTED

Every call we wrote for him this week, earliest first, as written.

In short

Jalen Nailor is a starter at wide receiver for LV — 64% of the snaps in his best week of 5. He has a concussion injury. His team named him inactive in week 5. This week he did not practise, then practised limited, then practised in full. His team has not listed him on the final report. We say he plays — 97%, in a band that plays 96% of the time. We have said PLAY since 57 hours before kickoff, and we changed our mind on the way. We called him SIT in week 6 and he played.

The reader concurs · grade A

Nailor spoke to reporters after Friday's practice and is reported as 'set to return on Sunday vs. the Buffalo Bills' (P1), which overrides the single Wed DNP in the club report. A beat outlet covering Kubiak's Friday availability states flatly that Nailor 'will play after missing last week's game with a concussion' (P2), framing the concussion as a past-week absence rather than a current limitation. The missed game referenced in P2 is last week's and is history, not status for this game.

15versions this week

9average, every player

29most for one player

How the call moved

EXPECTED since Sat Oct 17 · 7:02 AM ET · 33 h before kickoff. Biggest move: 47% → 82%, Thu Oct 15 · 5:01 PM ET to Fri Oct 16 · 7:01 AM ET, after: practiced more (Did Not Participate In Practice → Limited Participation in Practice).

This week's call

NOT EXPECTEDUNLIKELYCOIN FLIPLIKELYEXPECTED

97% · EXPECTED

we expect him to play — this band plays 96% of the time (96–97%), measured out of fold. We stand behind this one.

Practice this week

Fri	Thu	Wed
FPdated Fri Oct 16	LPdated Fri Oct 16	DNPdated Fri Oct 16

Shape of the week: improving. Only days the publisher dated are shown; a day we could not date is left out until the nightly sweep stamps it. The shape is a fact, not a forecast.

Head start

Our call Fri Oct 16 · 7:01 AM ET
Kickoff Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

Rec yds / game15 range 9.0–27
wk 1–6 · 4 games
Targets / game3.8 range 3.0–5.0
wk 1–6 · 4 games
Target share11.8% range 10–17
wk 1–6 · 4 games
Snap share52.8% range 23–64
wk 1–6 · 5 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

60%wk 1
60%wk 2
57%wk 3
23%wk 4
64%wk 6

Missed while on the injury report

Season	Weeks on the report	Missed while listed
2026	2	1

Only the weeks he was on the injury report with a recorded result — not every game of his career.

Medical history

When	Injury	Weeks on a report	Worst status
2026 · wk 5	concussion	2	Out
2025 · wk 16	back	1	—
2025 · wk 1	hand	2	—
2024 · wk 1	ankle	3	—
2023 · wk 15	concussion	4	Out
2023 · wk 7	hamstring	4	Questionable
2023 · wk 3	hamstring	1	—
2022 · wk 9	illness	1	Questionable
2022 · wk 5	hamstring	3	Questionable

Every injury episode on file for him, as the record holds it.

Injury history by season · 9 episodes · 21 weeks on a report · same site more than once: hamstring ×3

2022

illness · 1whamstring · 3w

2023

concussion · 4whamstring · 4whamstring · 1w

2024

ankle · 3w

2025

back · 1whand · 2w

2026

concussion · 2w

Weeks 1–18

ruled out
questionable
listed, and played

Each bar is one episode: the week it began and how many weeks he was on a report, coloured by the worst status.

Our past calls vs what happened

Wk 5SIT 47% ✓ rightbefore his team said anything; did not play

Wk 6SIT 47% ✗ missbefore his team said anything; played

Season on him: 1 of 2 graded calls of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report this week

Player	Pos	Practice	Whose word	Call	Chance he plays	Band
Foley Fatukasi	DT	FULL	ours	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED
Patrick Johnson	DE	FULL	ours	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED
Malcolm Koonce	DE	FULL	ours	PLAY	91%	EXPECTED
Dareke Young	WR	FULL	ours	PLAY	90%	EXPECTED
Tristin McCollum	DB	UNK	team's word	—
Segun Olubi	LB	FULL	ours	PLAY	90%	EXPECTED
Spencer Burford	G	FULL	ours	PLAY	95%	EXPECTED
Aidan O'Connell	QB	UNK	team's word	—
Chris Collier	RB	UNK	team's word	—
Brock Bowers	TE	FULL	ours	PLAY	99%	EXPECTED
Chigozie Anusiem	DB	UNK	team's word	—
Brennan Jackson	LB	UNK	team's word	—
Ashton Jeanty	RB	FULL	ours	PLAY	94%	EXPECTED
Tonka Hemingway	DT	DNP	team's word	Out
Carter Runyon	TE	LTD	team's word	Out
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	WR	FULL	team's word	Out
Bryce Cabeldue	G	UNK	team's word	—
Jack Bech	WR	UNK	team's word	—
Trey Zuhn III	C	LTD	team's word	Questionable
Dalton Johnson	SAF	UNK	team's word	—
Justin Pickett	G	UNK	team's word	—
Corey Rucker	WR	UNK	team's word	—
Cian Slone	DE	UNK	team's word	—
Keyron Crawford	DE	UNK	team's word	—

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.

The data behind this page — the timeline in words, every call and week on record, about him, and what this page does not show

Profile — as of week 6


Role	WR2 · 50% snaps
Season	2026 · 4 games through wk 5
Per game	17.3 receiving yards · 3.7 targets · 12.5% target share
Type	Deep threat
Career	4 seasons · 57 games before 2026
Injuries	8 episodes · last: back, 2025 wk 16
Bio	age 27.5 · 4 seasons' experience · drafted round 6

Where the profile comes from

Built from: honors.db; nflverse injuries_2026.csv; medical.db; nflverse players.csv; profile.db; nflverse roster_2026.csv; nflverse roster_weekly_2026.csv; nflverse snap_counts_2026.csv; nflverse stats_player_week_2026.csv. Every number in it is one those sources hold.

nflverse injuries_2026.csv

About him

About him	As the record holds it
His role	a starter at wide receiver — 64% of the snaps in his best week of 5
Listed on the depth chart	second at wide receiver
Last week	He did not dress last week
Snaps played	53% a week on average over 5 weeks, 64% at his highest
Build	6 ft 0 in · 190 lb
College	Michigan State
Drafted	2022, round 6 pick 191, by MIN
Age	25-28 at the season's start
Experience	4 seasons

When this call was made, and when the world knew

Fri Oct 16 · 7:01 AM ETWrittenWe first said PLAY.
Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ETPublicOur call became public, at kickoff.
Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ETKickoffKickoff.

How our call moved, earliest first

When	Lead	Call	Chance he plays	Band	On what
Thu Oct 15 · 7:01 AM ET	81 h	SIT	47%	COIN FLIP	before his team said anything
Thu Oct 15 · 12:01 PM ET	76 h	SIT	47%	COIN FLIP	before his team said anything
Thu Oct 15 · 5:01 PM ET	71 h	SIT	47%	COIN FLIP	before his team said anything
Fri Oct 16 · 7:01 AM ET	57 h	PLAY	82%	LIKELY	before his team said anything
Fri Oct 16 · 12:01 PM ET	52 h	PLAY	82%	LIKELY	before his team said anything
Fri Oct 16 · 3:49 PM ET	49 h	PLAY	82%	LIKELY	before his team said anything
Fri Oct 16 · 5:02 PM ET	47 h	PLAY	81%	LIKELY	before his team said anything
Fri Oct 16 · 5:21 PM ET	47 h	PLAY	81%	LIKELY	before his team said anything
Fri Oct 16 · 7:56 PM ET	45 h	PLAY	81%	LIKELY	before his team said anything
Sat Oct 17 · 7:02 AM ET	33 h	PLAY	97%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Sat Oct 17 · 12:02 PM ET	28 h	PLAY	97%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Sat Oct 17 · 5:01 PM ET	23 h	PLAY	97%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Sun Oct 18 · 7:01 AM ET	9 h	PLAY	97%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Sun Oct 18 · 12:02 PM ET	4 h	PLAY	97%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything
Sun Oct 18 · 12:29 PM ET	4 h	PLAY	97%	EXPECTED	before his team said anything

15 calls this week, flipping between PLAY and SIT 1 time. Each lead time is the one that call actually had when it was written — never recounted from now. A call that changes is the record working: new evidence arrived and we said so, in public, before the game.

His record this season

Wk	Practice	Chance he plays	Call	Source	Played
5	DNP	47%	SIT	before his team said anything	no
6	DNP	47%	SIT	before his team said anything	yes

A blank in Played is a week not yet settled — never a no.

Named inactive in week 5

The team's own list. We held it before kickoff, so it could have informed a call. Matched to him by his player id.