Ja'Marr Chase

How our call moved this week

• our call, P(plays)
• club report (public)

59% COIN FLIP → 85% LIKELY

Every call we wrote for him this week, earliest first, as written.

In short

Ja'Marr Chase is a starter at wide receiver for CIN — 100% of the snaps in his best week of 5. He has a concussion injury. He left last week's game. Of players in that position who did play the following week, 45% took under 70% of their usual snaps. This week he did not practise, then practised limited, then practised in full. His team has listed him Questionable.

The reader concurs · grade C

The only club-sourced note on Chase has him still in concussion protocol on Wednesday, but the club's own writer frames that as leaving him 'in the mix for Sunday's game' in Miami (P1), which is consistent with, not contradictory to, a PLAY call. Taylor's Monday framing was explicitly day-to-day with no ruling out (P2), and nothing written here contradicts the Thu Limited / Fri Full progression the club's report shows. The weakness is that the newest passage is 07 Oct, so the actual protocol clearance and the Friday designation are unverified in the prose — hence agreement on the call with low confidence in the evidence. It would need to know: Bengals official participation report for Thu 08 Oct and Fri 09 Oct confirming Chase's listed participation (limited/full); Confirmation Chase was cleared from the NFL concussion protocol by the independent neurological consultant before Sun 11 Oct; Friday 09 Oct final game-status designation for Chase (Out / Doubtful / Questionable / none) for the Miami game; Any Zac Taylor remark from Thu 08 or Fri 09 Oct specifically on Chase's protocol stage or expectation to play in Miami; Whether Tee Higgins (abductor) is out, which would affect how aggressively Cincinnati clears Chase

What the read cites

How the call moved

LIKELY since Sat Oct 10 · 7:01 AM ET · 30 h before kickoff · after the club said it (-5 h). Biggest move: 59% → 88%, Thu Oct 8 · 5:01 PM ET to Fri Oct 9 · 7:01 AM ET, after: practiced more (Did Not Participate In Practice → Limited Participation in Practice).

His team's word: Questionable

This is the TEAM'S OWN ANNOUNCEMENT, not a reading of ours. His team filed him on the injury report and we are restating it so the record is complete. There is nothing early about repeating an announcement — what we say ahead of one is on the week's page. Source: his team's published inactive list, on the day.

Practice this week

Shape of the week: improving. Only days the publisher dated are shown; a day we could not date is left out until the nightly sweep stamps it. The shape is a fact, not a forecast.

Head start

• His club's word Sat Oct 10 · 2:23 AM ET
• Kickoff Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

• Rec yds / game58 range 12–98

  wk 1–5 · 5 games

• Targets / game7.6 range 3.0–12

  wk 1–5 · 5 games

• Target share20.4% range 6–32

  wk 1–5 · 5 games

• Snap share78.2% range 20–100

  wk 1–5 · 5 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

1. 94%wk 1
2. 88%wk 2
3. 100%wk 3
4. 20%wk 4
5. 89%wk 5

Our past calls vs what happened

Season on him: 1 of 1 graded call of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report this week

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.