Chris Manhertz

How our call moved in week 7

• our call, P(plays)

62% COIN FLIP → 91% EXPECTED

Every call we wrote for him in week 7, earliest first, as written.

In short

Chris Manhertz is in the rotation for NYG — 52% of the snaps in his best week of 7. He has a calf injury. In week 7 he did not practise, then practised in full. His team has not listed him on the final report. We say he plays — 91%, in a band that plays 96% of the time. We have said PLAY since 60 hours before kickoff.

The reader concurs · grade C

The only passage shows Manhertz (calf) missing Thursday's practice (P1), which flatly contradicts the 'practice: FULL' input that produced the 95% starting cell, so the 0.905 rests on a participation reading the club's own report does not support. However, P1 explicitly separates the players who 'did not practice for a second straight day' from Manhertz, who 'also missed practice' (P1), so only one DNP is documented and no game designation appears anywhere in the dossier or passages. A single mid-week DNP with no Out/Doubtful tag is not enough to overturn a PLAY call, so I concur on the call while holding the probability well below 0.905. It would need to know: Friday 23 Oct and Saturday 24 Oct practice participation for Manhertz (DNP / limited / full); The final injury report designation (Out, Doubtful, Questionable) issued for Manhertz's calf ahead of the 25 Oct game; Whether Manhertz practiced on Wednesday 21 Oct, to establish whether Thursday was a first or second consecutive DNP; A Brian Daboll remark on Manhertz's calf or his expected availability Sunday; Whether NYG elevated or signed another blocking TE for the 25 Oct game

What the read cites

How the call moved

EXPECTED since Sat Oct 24 · 2:10 AM ET · 35 h before kickoff. Biggest move: 62% → 91%, Fri Oct 23 · 3:14 AM ET to Sat Oct 24 · 2:10 AM ET, after: practiced more (Did Not Participate In Practice → Full Participation in Practice).

Our call · week 7

91% · EXPECTED

we expect him to play — this band plays 96% of the time (96–97%), measured out of fold. We stand behind this one.

Practice in week 7

Shape of the week: improving. Only days the publisher dated are shown; a day we could not date is left out until the nightly sweep stamps it. The shape is a fact, not a forecast.

Head start

• Our call Fri Oct 23 · 12:54 AM ET
• Kickoff Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

Stats, with ranges — dot = his average, bar = his game range

• Rec yds / game0.0 range 0.0–0.0

  wk 4–6 · 2 games · below most of his peers

• Targets / game0.0 range 0.0–0.0

  wk 4–6 · 2 games · below most of his peers

• Target share0.0% range 0–0

  wk 4–6 · 2 games · below most of his peers

• Snap share33.9% range 15–52

  wk 1–7 · 7 games

Snaps by week — his larger of the offence and defence share

1. 35%wk 1
2. 31%wk 2
3. 44%wk 3
4. 52%wk 4
5. 15%wk 5
6. 16%wk 6
7. 44%wk 7

Our past calls vs what happened

Season on him: 2 of 2 graded calls of ours right. Graded by the record: right or a miss against whether he played. A week we did not call, or his club's own word, is not graded.

The rest of his team's report in week 7

The model reads the room: who else is out shifts what his own designation is worth.